New E-zine from Gary Boswell

My old pal Gary Boswell is starting a new subscription-only newsletter for serious punters. It will focus on his two areas of special expertise, non-league football and racing at Fontwell Park. Here's the full text of his email:

THE BOZ PAPERS

Launch date November 26th 2006

What have Fontwell Park and the Unibond Premier League got in common? Answer, both have become the focus of intense study for gambling writer and tipster, Gary Boswell.

And starting on Sunday November 26th, both will be featured in the gambling ramblings of a new weekly subscription only e-zine, The Boz Papers.

The launch is timed to coincide with the final November race meet at Fontwell Park where Gary has been making money for the past ten years. Read all about his past exploits and take part in the future plunder of the bookies satchels by signing up for the first issue which will be delivered to your inbox late Saturday evening/early Sunday morning – in plenty of time to plan your betting strategy for the Sunday’s racing.

The zine will then publish every weekend to include features on Fontwell Park every time it is staged and weekly on non-league football where Gary is a known betting expert. He wrote the tipping column for the Non-League Paper between 2001 and 2006 securing a points profit for punters in each of the six seasons covered.

This year, Gary has specialised in the Unibond Premier League and with research done, is ready to unleash a series of betting strategies to leave the bookmakers reeling.

Read his exclusive opinions only in The Boz Papers which will also feature guest articles by members of the infamous Non-League Pools Panel which Gary inaugurated during his time at the NLP and which has carried on as an independent body this season.

The Boz Papers is a subscription only e-zine for a reason. Gary is careful not to broadcast sensitive information too widely and has taken the decision to end his broadcasting in the National Press in order to allow a select band of loyal readers to benefit from his research.

You are receiving this email because you have shown interest in Gary’s opinions in the past and are thus being offered an exclusive chance to get in with The Boz Papers

from the start. A cap will be put on the number of subscribers and only the first 100 to sign up will receive the weekly bulletin. Gary will also be running individual tutorials and email forums with all subscribers to ensure they are making money from his advice.

So if you’ve enjoyed reading Boz in the past and you fancy making some money in the future, sign up to The Boz Papers now. A trial subscription for the first issue only will cost you just £10. You will then be offered a full subscription to the weekly zine.

Chances are you’ll be able to pay for that out of your first day winnings!

Long-term plans for The Boz Papers include sporting weekends and exclusive syndicate membership offers as well as a long term commitment from Boz to teach you everything he has learned from a lifetime of devising strategies to keep the bookmakers begging for mercy!

If you are interested in being one of the 100 to sign up to The Boz Papers, all you need do at this stage is reply to this email. Boz will vet your membership and send details of how to proceed.

If you're interested in this opportunity to profit from Gary's proven expertise, email him as soon as possible at garyboswell@kencomp.net.

Grand National Tipping

Here's an interesting snippet from the Racing Post website:

Racing Post website users knew. Since last Thursday, they were invited to vote for the horse they thought most likely to win the Grand National. Out of 11,120 votes cast, Numbersixvalverde emerged the comfortable winner, polling 25.2 per cent of the votes. Clan Royal finished second with 10.1 per cent and Hedgehunter was third with seven per cent.

If you did your money this year, you can comfort yourself with the thought of how much you might win next year if you simply back the results of the Racing Post's website poll in a £10 Trifecta!

Opromark moves forward (at last!)

After almost a year with only one property actually sold, the property exchange Opromark looks as though it is at last getting into second gear. Here's an extract from the email they sent me recently:

We have recently removed a number of properties that had been available to reserve on the exchange for some time. We have now changed the rules so that a property can only be available to reserve for 60 days - after that, if the vendor has not put the property to Offer, it will be removed.

Ever since our initial offering we have been working hard in the background to ensure that we have a sustainable supply of new, off-plan and already rented properties to meet the differing needs of our members. We have now secured properties from a range of different providers including several house builders - all with a reputation for quality.

To that end we are proud to announce that Persimmon Homes, the country's premier house builder, have entered into a test programme to supply a range of new and exciting properties available through Opromark. We start with 5 properties in an almost completed development in Haywards Heath - an interior shot from a show flat is shown here on the right.

Obviously, if you go to the Opromark site, you can see pictures of the development on there if you wish.

If you haven't heard of Opromark before, it's run along similar lines to Betfair, but for buying and selling property. You can buy shares in any property being sold on the exchange, for a minimum price of £1. You then get a share of any rental income, plus you can sell your shares on the exchange at any time in the future, hopefully for a good profit. And if the property is subsequently sold, the profits will be divided up among the shareholders.

Opromark is an interesting idea that hasn't really taken off as yet, but could do if the property market shrugs off its recent torpor and starts moving upward again. If you like the idea of investing in property but want to spread the risk by pooling your investment with others, it's got to be worth a look.

And yes, in case you're wondering, I am one of the 65 investors who last year bought a share of the original single-bedroom cottage in Leeds!

Birthday Betting

Here's another Q&A from my Betting Surgery column in the "unpublished" final edition of The Winning Report...

Q. Please can you settle an argument with a neighbour? He claims that, in a room of 26 people, the chances are at least two will have the same birthday. I can’t believe this is right. Can you settle our dispute and show how the answer is worked out? There’s a tenner riding on this.
Michael Waters, Blackpool

A. We can settle your bet, but you won’t like the answer! Your neighbour is quite right. The probability of two or more people from 26 sharing the same birthday is 63 per cent, or almost 2/1 in favour.

The way to work this out is to establish the probability of no birthdays matching. The chance of the second person’s birthday differing from the first is 364/365, the chance of the third person having a different birthday again is 363/365 and so on, until the chance of the 26th person not having a matching birthday is 340/365.

All of these conditions must be met for no-one to have matching birthdays – so for the bet to fail you must multiply these fractions together. That gives a figure of 0.37. Subtracting this from one gives a probability of 0.63, or 63 per cent, that two or more people WILL have matching birthdays.

As a matter of interest, with 23 people in the room the chances of a match are just over even; with 34, the chances are 80 per cent. Why not try offering this as a bet at the next party you go to? You might just win your tenner back!

Last day to enter 7 Stars Competition!

Just a quick reminder that today is the last day you can enter Godolphin's free 7 Stars competition. Go to www.godolphin.com for full details and to sign up. If you don't have the time or inclination to pick seven horses today, they will do a 'Lucky Dip' for you!

Good luck!

ISA and VCT Deadline Looms!

If you've got any money to save for a rainy day, just a reminder that you have less than a fortnight (5 April) to take advantage of your tax-free ISA and VCT allowances.

Most people nowadays know about ISAs. They allow you to save up to £7,000 a year in cash, shares and/or insurance, in a tax-free wrapper.

The ISA rules allow you to save up to £3,000 a year in a cash mini-ISA. You can also have a shares mini-ISA with investments of up to £3,000 and an insurance mini-ISA with up to £1,000 (though only a few providers offer these).

The alternative is to buy a maxi-ISA. You can have up to £7,000 invested in one of these. This can either be all stocks and shares, or you can mix-and-match with up to £3,000 in cash and up to £1,000 in insurance. Only a few maxi-ISA providers offer all three components, however, so if that is what you want, you may be better off buying three separate mini-ISAs.

VCTs are a lesser-known tax break. They were introduced by the Government in 1995 to encourage investment in new and smaller companies. This can obviously be riskier than investing in well-established businesses, but to make up for this the tax benefits are considerable.

For one thing, all dividends on VCTs are paid tax-free and don't have to be declared on your tax form. In addition, all taxpayers, even those who only pay the lowest rate, get 40% up-front income tax relief. That means if you invest £10,000 in a VCT, your tax bill for the current tax year will immediately be reduced by £4,000 (or you will get a rebate for this amount). Another way of looking at this is that even if your investment only ever returns 60% of its initial cost, you will still have broken even.

One drawback with VCTs is that you have to keep your money invested for at least three years, or you will have to repay the tax rebate. There is also a limited market if you want to sell your shares, though most VCTs will buy them back for a small discount on the market value.

The maximum you are allowed to invest in a VCT this year is an eye-watering £200,000. The minimum investment is set by the VCTs themselves - the lowest I have seen is £2,000, but £3,000 to £5,000 is more common. Some VCTs invest in specialist fields such as wind farms and music concerts, while others are more generalist in their approach. Gordon Brown announced yesterday that the tax breaks for VCTs will continue next year but in a reduced form - so if you want to take advantage of the generous tax incentives in the current year, you do need to move quickly.

If you'd like more info about ISAs and VCTs, there are many websites that can help you. Personally I like Best Invest. They act as independent financial advisers, and if you register through them you will get a discount on the fees charged for any investments you make. Their website has in-depth info and recommendations for current VCTs. And no, I don't get any kickbacks for recommending them! I just use them myself and think they provide a very good service.

Finally, all of the above is for information only. ISAs and VCTs may not be suitable for everyone. If you are in any doubt as to how best to proceed, I strongly recommend consulting an independent financial adviser.

Godolphin Seven Stars Competition

Just a quick reminder that you only have until the end of this week - Friday 24 March - to enter this free competition with a top prize of US$100,000. The website you need to visit is www.godolphin.com. Here are some more details about the competition from this site:

You can use our website to check out the form of the horses in training with Godolphin before selecting one horse from each of these seven barns to fly the flag for you in the competition.

Alternatively, if you are a racing novice, why not let the computer make a selection for you by using the Lucky Dip entry form? Remember entry is free and you could win one of the big prizes.

Whenever one of your seven horses is declared to run during the period of the competition - from March 25th to December 10th – we’ll e-mail you and let you know that it is running. And you can visit the Godolphin website at any time to see how you are doing and how your entry is faring in the race for that US$100,000 first prize.

See also my earlier post about this contest.

Good luck!

Betting Surgery Answer

As promised, here is another item I contributed to the last issue of The Winning Report, which as far as I know has not been published. It's a Q&A from the Betting Surgery column.

Q. Betfair have just produced a list of six horses ante-post for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. The odds are 16, 10, 14, 16, 15 and 20 respectively, giving a potential arb of around 45 per cent.

Am I missing something here, as it seems too good to be true if I can back all six horses at these odds for a guaranteed profit? How do supplementary entries affect this market? What would happen if all six horses do not appear at Cheltenham? Can other horses be entered in this market at any time or is it a "closed shop"? I would appreciate your views.

[Sent later] Update regarding the Fred Winter Handicap. The six runners declared have now increased to 19. Obviously no arb, but bets stand on the original six. Is there anything to stop the number of runners rising to say 40 or 50? This means the ante-post market is a waste of time. I would appreciate your comments and thoughts.

Mike Sterry, by e-mail

A. Thank you for your question. We must first of all make clear that we do not recommend horse racing for arb (risk-free) betting.

The main problem with ante-post betting, as you have discovered, is that months before a race there is no certainty that any particular horse will run. Indeed, it is not until the runners and riders are declared the night before the race that this is certain, and anyone betting prior to this risks losing their money if the horse they backed doesn’t actually compete.

You might ask why people bet in these circumstances at all, and the answer is that the odds available can be much better. Indeed, there have been one or two wondrous ‘coups’ in ante-post betting.

For example, back in 1967 the bookmakers William Hill gave race-horse owner Raymond Guest odds of 100/1 against his then-unraced colt winning the Derby the following year. Guest staked £500 each-way at this price. The horse was Sir Ivor, and he duly won the 1968 Derby under Lester Piggott at a starting price of 4/5. Guest collected total winnings of £62,500 on his ante-post bet (£50,000 on the win portion plus a further £12,500 on the place).

Betting ante-post is very much a gamble, however, and not advised for risk-free bettors unless you have top-notch ‘connections’ in the industry and/or advanced powers of clairvoyance.

Even in the (unlikely) event of an arb being available on the day of the race, bear in mind that in racing arb bettors can have their plans wrecked by Rule Four deductions, which occur when a horse is withdrawn without coming under orders. In this case a fixed percentage is deducted from all winning bets, the exact amount depending on the price of the withdrawn horse. For these and other reasons, horse-racing is not prime arb-hunting territory.

As regards Betfair, it is important to bear in mind that they do not produce the 'ante-post' market. They simply offer the facility for punters to do so. So, in the case of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, we suspect that at the time Mr Sterry first looked, only six of the horses entered had prices offered about them by other punters.

This point is crucial to understand. All 'back' bets on an exchange are simply 'lays' being offered by other punters. Once a race opens up to entries, there are then declaration stages where if a horse's connections want to stay in they pay extra entry fees. If not, they withdraw the horse. Thus, any horse which doesn't have the extra entry fees paid is removed from the race.

So a race might open for entries and attract, for example, 70 horses. In the lead-up to the race 60 of these horses might be withdrawn because the connections didn't want to run (the withdrawals take place at ‘declaration stages’). The final declaration stage comes the night before the contest (two nights before for the highest grade of races). By then no further entry fees are payable, but those already paid are lost if the horse is withdrawn - as are all ante-post bets, including those on exchanges.

A betting exchange will offer the facility for ante-post betting on races where they think there will be sufficient action to make money from their commission on the winning bets or lays. With a high-profile race with 70 entries that would probably be the case, especially if it were a handicap. But exactly how many horses are available to back (being offered by other punters as 'lays') is in the lap of the gods.

This is what we think happened with the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Once Betfair offered the facility for a market to be made, only six horses were initially put up by layers. This figure bore no relation to the number of runners actually entered for the race, but explains why it seemed that the number of runners later increased. It was quite simply layers on the exchange offering more and more horses to back.

Note: Many thanks to Vic Knight for his assistance in answering this question.

Note 2: See also my post Non-Runner No Bet for details of an opportunity to bet ante-post and get your money back if your horse doesn't run.

Betfair - New Features

Have you visited the world's number one betting exchange Betfair recently? If not, you may be unaware that a number of new features have been introduced.

A number of these concern how information is displayed on betting pages. For example, in horse racing the jockeys' colours are now shown, and if you hover your cursor over a horse's name, further information is displayed, including the horse's form string.

You can also personalise how Betfair displays prices. For example, if you don't like seeing Lay prices displayed with a pink background (the default), you can switch to red, green or yellow.

You can also choose either Full View or Express View. Full View is the standard Betfair display, but in Express View you only see Back prices, and you aren't shown either the amount of money available to stake at best price. It's not clear to me why anyone would prefer Express View, unless they really don't understand exchange betting, and prefer to see prices displayed as they would be at a betting shop.

There are various other innovations, and it's worth dropping by and clicking on Options some time to see what they are. However, one of my favourite innovations has nothing to do with the betting interface.

Betfair are now allowing accounts to be funded using the online payment system Paypal, and you can also withdraw any winnings to your Paypal account. I've had a Paypal account for several years, and found it a very convenient method for paying for things on the net. It's also widely used on the Internet auction site eBay, so you can now use your Betfair winnings to finance your auction purchases, and vice versa!

WorldLPP - Invest today or miss out this time!

Just a quick follow-up to my last posting. The first World Limited Partnership Program project, Vivamin, has just announced its first dividend payment to members of $1.72 per $50 unit purchased. If you wish you can view the Vivamin website by clicking here.

As I mentioned before, the company is now offering the chance to invest in a second project, an IT call centre based in Romania. You can see the new company's almost-finished website now by going to http://www.itconsultinglive.com/site/. Again, just $50 gets you a stake in this company. But you do need to move VERY SWIFTLY now, as subscriptions are closing today (10 March) at 12 noon Pacific Standard Time (that's 8 pm in GMT).

Obviously this is somewhat speculative, so (as with all gambling) don't invest any money you can't afford to lose. But personally I think it's well worth a punt. I've bought a couple of units in the new IT call centre anyway. For more info, please see my other posting below.

World Limited Partnership Program - new sideline earning opportunity

The World Limited Partnership Program, or WorldLPP for short, provides its members with the chance to jointly purchase businesses across the world and share in the income they generate. Back in November I gave details in this blog of the first project available for investment to WorldLPP members, a chance to own a share in a health supplement company called Vivamin.

Now the company have announced details of their second project - an IT call centre based in Romania, where skills are high but salaries are much lower. Just $50 gets you a share in this company. Or even if you don't want to invest any money yet, just sign up as a member of WorldLPP for free. Not only does this give you free access to the members' area, which contains thousands of dollars worth of downloads, scripts, e-books, and so on, but 10% of profits from all projects is shared between all qualified members, not just shareholders. If you'd like to find out more, clicking here will take you to the main information page.

By the way, to purchase units in the new IT call centre, you will need to use either E-Gold or Stormpay. E-Gold is rather a complicated payment system, so unless you have an E-Gold account already I don't recommend it. Stormpay lets you pay by credit card, but there is actually a lot to be said for first opening a Stormpay account, funding it with your credit card, and then using this to pay for units. Once you have a Stormpay account, it entitles you to a range of extra benefits, including free e-mail and web hosting and the chance to make money just by viewing other websites. For more info about Stormpay, click here.

Finally, if you want to buy shares in the IT call centre, don't wait too long. Only limited numbers are available, and according to the WorldLPP website the offer is only likely to be open for the next seven days or so.

Tipsters Update

As promised, here is my latest Tipsters Update column, as no longer published in The Winning Report...

Every month we bring you details of Britain’s best performing tipping services, by courtesy of RID (the Racing Information Database). RID monitor over 150 services and issue monthly printouts showing the net profit/loss accrued by them over the last month and year.

Last month was generally a better one for the services. The highest winning SP was 20/1, given by both Sport4Profit’s sports betting service and Phoenix Racing. The longest winning run was 34, given by the laying service Losers4U (formerly On The Gallops Lays). The best strike rate of 92 per cent came from another laying service, Streakahead Lays.

The top three in RID’s rolling annual table is the same as last month. Sport4Profit sports service stays in first place, with SportOnlineGambling.com in second, and Hallmark Racing in third. Contact details for all three services are shown below.

1. Sport4Profit sports service (08700 505 022 or www.sport4profit.com)
2. SportOnlineGambling.com (0161 282 2635 or www.sportonlinegambling.com)
3. Hallmark Racing (www.hallmarkracing.co.uk or e-mail: hallmarkracing@hotmail.com)

These are all subscription-based services. Sport4Profit charges £67 a month, Hallmark Racing £83 a month, and SportOnlineGambling.com £58 a month.

Note that all prices quoted are based on one-twelfth of the service’s annual charge. Some services also allow you to subscribe for shorter periods, but pro rata this almost always works out more expensive.

Betting £100 on all of their selections over the last twelve months would have produced a net profit after all costs are taken into account of over £19,000 for Sport4Profit sports service, over £15,200 for SportOnlineGambling.com, and £11,600 for Hallmark Racing.

The most profitable tipping services monitored by RID over the last month are as follows:

Premium rate phone lines – FBI Raceline (0906 664 6600 – £1.50 a minute) was the most successful service in this category. Their tips generated a net profit of nearly £400 after all costs are deducted.

Subscription and ‘to the odds’ services – The most profitable service in this category last month was Phoenix Racing (email: racingphoenix@ntlworld.com). Their tips generated an overall profit of nearly £2,900.

Services providing 12 or less selections per month – The best performer in this category was Hallmark Racing (www.hallmarkracing.co.uk or e-mail: hallmarkracing@hotmail.com). Five successful tips out of ten given produced a net profit of over £700.

Sports betting services – The most profitable service in this or any category was SportOnlineGambling.com (0161 282 2635 or www.sportonlinegambling.com). Their happy subscribers enjoyed a net profit of nearly £3,400 after all costs are deducted.

RID’s statistics cover both backing and laying services. Rather than tipping winners, laying services tip horses or other selections they expect to lose. Subscribers can then lay these selections at exchanges such as Betfair, and collect the backer’s stake money if the selection does indeed fail. Laying services normally have a high strike rate, but bear in mind that the amount you will win from a successful lay will be less than the amount you lose if the lay fails (unless you are laying at odds on).

All tipster information comes from the Racing Information Database, an independent proofing service. Profit figures are calculated to £100 level stakes or £50 each way. Only doubles or trebles are accepted for multiple bets and are calculated to £100 win or £50 each-way level stakes. All figures are calculated according to SP (starting price) unless a specific early price was advised and that price was available from at least one high street bookmaker. The figures quoted represent the net profits (or losses) after deduction of all losing bets and the costs/expenses of receiving the services.

If you would like to receive RID’s full monthly printouts, which include detailed profit-and-loss figures and lots of other useful information (including longest winning and losing runs for each service), write to them at Racing Information Database, PO Box 3336, Sheffield, S14 1WY. You can also e-mail them at racingdatabase@hotmail.com. A subscription to RID currently costs £99 a year and a sample issue is £10.

No more Winning Reports...

It seems that there will be no more issues of Streetwise Publications' newsletter The Winning Report. I have heard that this publication is being rolled into another newsletter, What Really Wins Money, from Canonbury Publishing. If you're a current Winning Report subscriber, you may have started receiving this now. As far as I know, none of the regular Winning Report contributors is writing for What Really Wins Money.

I submitted various items for the last issue of The Winning Report, which it appears will not be published now - so I thought I'd publish them here instead. The first will be my Tipsters Update column, in which I set out the current leading tipping services, courtesy of the Racing Information Database. More articles will be posted over the next few days.

Non-runner No Bet

Betting ante-post (i.e. before the runners in a race are finally declared) can net you some great prices, but usually with the downside that if your horse doesn't run, your stake is lost.

However, www.bet365.com is offering a way round this problem. On selected races they are offering 'Non-Runner No Bet' (NRNB) in ante-post betting. Races to which this applies include the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Sun Alliance Chase and Triumph Hurdle. As far as I know Bet365 is the only bookie offering these terms for ante-post betting, so if you fancy an early wager on one of these big races, Bet365 looks like being your best choice!

Godolphin Seven Stars Competition

This annual free competition opens for entries on 1 March 2006. Here's more info from the Godolphin website:

The world's greatest free-to-enter on-line racing competition, the Godolphin Seven Stars, opens for entries at 9am (Dubai time) on Wednesday, March 1st, 2006.

Entries, limited to one per person, must be made through the Godolphin Internet site, www.godolphin.com, by 11.59pm (Dubai time) on Friday, March 24th.

Competitors pick seven Godolphin racehorses who are awarded points for finishing first, second or third, with extra points for high quality races, between Saturday, March 25th which is Dubai World Cup day and Sunday, December 10th when the Hong Kong International races take place. All contestants must be aged 18 or over.

Information about the progress of the competition can be found on the award-winning Godolphin Internet site. This is the seventh year of the Godolphin Seven Stars.

The tremendous prizes are the same as in 2005, with the winner gaining US$100,000, two free first class flights to Dubai with Emirates Airline and seven nights at the fantastic Burj Al Arab Hotel in a duplex suite for the 2007 Dubai World Cup meeting.

The second collects US$50,000, while the third gains US$30,000, the fourth wins US$15,000 and the fifth receives US$5,000.

It's a bit of lottery, obviously, but you've nothing to lose by entering!

Inside Edge offers

Have you seen Inside Edge magazine? It's a glossy mag, available from newsagents, covering most areas of gambling. It's generally a good read, and I've picked up one or two useful ideas from its pages. As with all such publications, some articles are better than others, of course.

Inside Edge costs £1.99 per issue at the newsagents, but there are some great special offers available currently. On their own website they are offering three free issues if you subscribe for a year, and another email newsletter I subscribe to has today offered me an annual subscription for £7.99. However, I've found an even better deal than that on the Internet. How about a year's subscription for just a fiver? It's available now from the website below:

Inside Edge £5 Special Offer

I assume they do this in order to boost their circulation, so that they can charge more to advertisers (which is where they make most of their money). Anyway, it's a great offer, so if you fancy getting Inside Edge delivered to your door free for 12 months, I recommend going to the web page above and getting your order in today. Obviously, I can't guarantee how long this offer will be available.

Goodbye, Winning Report

If you subscribe to The Winning Report, the monthly gambling newsletter from Streetwise Publications, I'm afraid I have some disappointing news for you. On Friday I received an e-mail from the editor telling me that, due to a falling circulation, The Winning Report would no longer be using freelance contributions.

As Vic Knight, David Keeldar and myself - who between us write 90 per cent of the newsletter - are all freelances, that means the newsletter will shortly cease to exist in its current form. I have heard from another source that all existing TWR subscriptions will be transferred to another gambling newsletter. If that's true, at least you won't be left high and dry.

In some ways I'm not too surprised by this development, as new magazine launches such as Inside Edge have taken away some of TWR's potential readership. I do still think that TWR could have had a successful future, though, perhaps by concentrating more on betting exchange trading strategies, risk-free betting, and similar niches. However, my guess is that Streetwise are clearing space in their publishing schedule for new projects, and TWR was a project that they felt had run its course.

As for me, it's disappointing but not a disaster, as I have plenty of other irons in the fire. But if any other publisher is interested in taking over some of the popular features I used to produce for TWR, such as Betting Surgery and Tipsters Update, I am open to offers! Please contact me at mail-at-nickdaws.co.uk.

Money-saving websites

It's often said that you should only gamble with money you can afford to lose. And one of the best ways to get hold of such money is by saving it out of your normal spending.

The Money Saving Expert website (www.moneysavingexpert.com) aims to help you do exactly that. It’s run by financial journalist and TV presenter Martin Lewis. The site is packed with hints and tips on saving money (and sometimes making it too), on everything from mobile phones to credit cards.

Among the many interesting features is an article about saving money on motoring. This has a link to a website (www.petrolprices.com) which will show you the cheapest petrol station in your area. Another site mentioned (www.pipelinecard.org) is currently collecting the names of people who would like a free discount card entitling them to a discount of up to 10p a litre on petrol with a major retailer.

From the website you can also subscribe to Martin Lewis’s free weekly e-mail newsletter, which includes information on special offers and ‘loopholes’ you can take advantage of to save or make money. A recent one included a promotion for a Barclays Bank current account which (unintentionally) gave away £100 just for opening an account, putting £2,000 into it, and closing it two months later.

If you regularly follow all the tips and advice on this website, I reckon you should be able to save several hundred pounds a year (at least) for betting purposes!

Lazybet Update

The Lazybet Placepot Syndicate hasn't been overly successful, and each £10 of members' money originally invested is now worth under £8. In view of this Lazybet have decided to broaden the scope of the syndicate. Here's what they say on the site today:

After considering members’ feedback and our own thoughts over the past few days, we’ve decided to convert the Placepot syndicate into a general sports betting syndicate. We will still take a look at the Placepot prospects each day and have a go if we think the dividend might be worth it but the new structure will give us much wider scope in selecting bets.

I think this is a sensible step, and will be keeping my current investment in the syndicate. Lazybet has tipped a number of good winners over the last few weeks, so allowing single bets as well seems a sensible step to take. I do take my hat off to the people behind Lazybet for putting in a lot of effort for small financial reward. Successful or not, they really are putting their money where their mouth is...

Euro-Millions Jackpot

Here's an item I saw on the BBC website:

Sales soar ahead of £85m lottery

The biggest ever British lottery win could take place later on Friday with an estimated jackpot of £85m up for grabs in the EuroMillions draw.

The draw, run by the National Lottery in conjunction with operators in eight European countries, has not seen a winner for the past nine weeks.

Ticket sales are on course to be more than 300% higher than normal, the UK organiser Camelot has said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4630686.stm

OK, but bear in mind that the odds against winning are 76 million to 1!

Theoretically, when the prize fund is this big, the odds are actually in punters' favour - if you entered an infinite number of times you would come out ahead overall. However, most of us don't have infinite lifespans, and it's unlikely the Lottery will either!

Calculating winnings on multiple bets

Many people have difficulties calculating the expected returns from winning multiple bets such as doubles, trebles and four-folds. However, it is important to know how much you should be getting, as bookmakers can and do make mistakes. Here's a quick and simple way to calculate the returns due on any accumulator bet from a double upwards.

If you are using fractional odds, first divide out the odds of each ‘leg’ of the bet to produce a single figure in decimals. Add one point to each of these figures, multiply through, then multiply by your stake.

For example, suppose you are lucky enough to have a winning four-fold at 2/1, 10/11, 9/2 and 6/4. Convert these odds to decimals and add one point in each case:

2/1 = 2 divided by 1 = 2.00, plus 1 = 3.00
10/11 = 10 divided by 11 = 0.90, plus 1 = 1.90
9/2 = 9 divided by 2 = 4.50, plus 1 = 5.50
6/4 = 6 divided by 4 = 1.50, plus 1 = 2.50

Now multiply the decimals together: 3 x 1.9 x 5.5 x 2.5 = 78.38. If you had staked £1, the total return would therefore be £78.38. If you had staked £5, your return would be £391.90 (5 x 78.38).

If you are working with decimal odds, of course, as used on Betfair, it is even easier. Just multiply all the decimal prices together as shown above, and multiply this by your stake money.

Premium Bonds v. The Lottery

Premium Bonds have been in the news again recently, with the decision to pay out an extra £1 million prize every month. But are they really a good bet compared with other opportunities to win big cash prizes such as the Lottery? I thought I'd do some research on this to find out.

Let's start with the basics though. Premium Bonds are sold by National Savings and Investments (NS&I) on behalf of the government. Each Bond has a unique number and is sold for £1, though the minimum purchase you can make at any one time is £100.

No interest is paid on Premium Bonds. Instead, the interest generated is put into a prize fund. Every month the NS&I computer, the famous ERNIE, selects the winning numbers, whose owners receive prizes ranging from the minimum £50 up to £1 million. Each month over a million prizes in total are awarded.

So how do Premium Bonds compare with the Lottery? One big 'plus' for Bonds is that, once you have bought them, they are entered into the prize draws month after month, for as long as you hold them. You can also get your money back at any time - unlike Lottery tickets which, if they don't win, are instantly worthless. And, unlike stocks and shares, the value of Premium Bonds cannot go down, though of course it will never go up either.

Does the Lottery have any advantages? Well, maybe. One is that the top prize is usually bigger. If you wouldn't get out bed for a mere million pounds but wouldn't sniff at ten million, the Lottery might appeal more. Just don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen…

In addition, your chances of winning any prize with a single Lottery ticket (1 in 54) are much better than with a Premium Bond (1 in 24,000 in each draw). However, the minimum prizes with Lottery tickets are smaller - and your Premium Bond will be in entered in twelve draws a year for as long as you hold it.

Perhaps the best way of comparing the relative attractions of the Lottery and Premium Bonds is comparing the likely return on them from the same level of investment. Suppose then that you have a £30,000 windfall and invest it on (a) Premium Bonds and (b) the Lottery. What are your returns likely to be?

As from August 2005, the interest rate on Premium Bonds rose to 3.25 per cent per year. This has led some commentators to suggest that with average luck you could expect a return of 3.25 per cent on your investment. As prizes are tax-free, this would be the equivalent of 5.42 per cent for a higher rate tax-payer and 4.06 per cent for a basic rate one. Such rates would be comparable with many high street savings accounts.

I have to say this is misleading, though. That average figure of 3.25 per cent is boosted by a small number of very large prizes that, statistically, you are very unlikely to win. A more relevant statistic may be the fact that with £30,000 worth of bonds you can expect to win, on average, 15 prizes a year.

If these are all minimum £50 prizes, at the end of the year you will have won £750 worth of prizes, equivalent to an annual interest rate of 2.5 per cent tax-free. That's less than many savings accounts, of course, but every month you do have the chance of winning a bigger prize, up to the £1 million jackpot.

Now suppose that instead you invest your £30,000 on this week's Lottery draw. The statistics say that 50 per cent of all funds invested in the Lottery are returned as prizes. Again this is misleading, however, as a significant proportion of this money goes in a small number of very large prizes you are very unlikely to win.

A better guide comes from a surprising source. ITV's Saturday night quiz show The Big Call culminates in the winner being asked to choose between £25,000 and 100,000 Lottery tickets. If the winner doesn't go for the tickets, a viewer gets the opportunity instead. If you have watched the show, you will know that the 100,000 Lottery tickets typically produce around £30,000 in prizes, i.e. you get a return of 30 per cent.

Going back to my example, then, if you put your £30,000 windfall into Lottery tickets, with 'average luck' you could expect to get 30 per cent of 30,000 = £9,000 back. By contrast, with average luck again your £30,000 Premium Bond investment would give you a total return over a year of £30,750 (including the value of the Bonds, of course).

When you look at it like this, the Lottery really is a terrible investment. OK, it might be a bit of fun if you have no other use for a spare pound or two, but if you are spending any more than this, you should really consider saving up and buying Premium Bonds instead.

After all, think about it. With Premium Bonds you still get the chance to win a life-changing sum of money, but even if this doesn't happen they are still a decent investment, and you can get all your money back any time you need it.

If you're paying for Lottery tickets every week, therefore, my suggestion would be to put the money into a separate kitty instead and use it to buy Premium Bonds. The more you have, the better your chances will be, and every month your Bonds will be in with as good a chance of a big win as anybody else's. Be lucky!

* You can buy Premium Bonds at any post office or at the NS&I website at www.nsandi.com. If you already have Premium Bonds, you can also use this site to check whether they are holding any unclaimed prizes for you.