New E-zine from Gary Boswell

My old pal Gary Boswell is starting a new subscription-only newsletter for serious punters. It will focus on his two areas of special expertise, non-league football and racing at Fontwell Park. Here's the full text of his email:

THE BOZ PAPERS

Launch date November 26th 2006

What have Fontwell Park and the Unibond Premier League got in common? Answer, both have become the focus of intense study for gambling writer and tipster, Gary Boswell.

And starting on Sunday November 26th, both will be featured in the gambling ramblings of a new weekly subscription only e-zine, The Boz Papers.

The launch is timed to coincide with the final November race meet at Fontwell Park where Gary has been making money for the past ten years. Read all about his past exploits and take part in the future plunder of the bookies satchels by signing up for the first issue which will be delivered to your inbox late Saturday evening/early Sunday morning – in plenty of time to plan your betting strategy for the Sunday’s racing.

The zine will then publish every weekend to include features on Fontwell Park every time it is staged and weekly on non-league football where Gary is a known betting expert. He wrote the tipping column for the Non-League Paper between 2001 and 2006 securing a points profit for punters in each of the six seasons covered.

This year, Gary has specialised in the Unibond Premier League and with research done, is ready to unleash a series of betting strategies to leave the bookmakers reeling.

Read his exclusive opinions only in The Boz Papers which will also feature guest articles by members of the infamous Non-League Pools Panel which Gary inaugurated during his time at the NLP and which has carried on as an independent body this season.

The Boz Papers is a subscription only e-zine for a reason. Gary is careful not to broadcast sensitive information too widely and has taken the decision to end his broadcasting in the National Press in order to allow a select band of loyal readers to benefit from his research.

You are receiving this email because you have shown interest in Gary’s opinions in the past and are thus being offered an exclusive chance to get in with The Boz Papers

from the start. A cap will be put on the number of subscribers and only the first 100 to sign up will receive the weekly bulletin. Gary will also be running individual tutorials and email forums with all subscribers to ensure they are making money from his advice.

So if you’ve enjoyed reading Boz in the past and you fancy making some money in the future, sign up to The Boz Papers now. A trial subscription for the first issue only will cost you just £10. You will then be offered a full subscription to the weekly zine.

Chances are you’ll be able to pay for that out of your first day winnings!

Long-term plans for The Boz Papers include sporting weekends and exclusive syndicate membership offers as well as a long term commitment from Boz to teach you everything he has learned from a lifetime of devising strategies to keep the bookmakers begging for mercy!

If you are interested in being one of the 100 to sign up to The Boz Papers, all you need do at this stage is reply to this email. Boz will vet your membership and send details of how to proceed.

If you're interested in this opportunity to profit from Gary's proven expertise, email him as soon as possible at garyboswell@kencomp.net.

Grand National Tipping

Here's an interesting snippet from the Racing Post website:

Racing Post website users knew. Since last Thursday, they were invited to vote for the horse they thought most likely to win the Grand National. Out of 11,120 votes cast, Numbersixvalverde emerged the comfortable winner, polling 25.2 per cent of the votes. Clan Royal finished second with 10.1 per cent and Hedgehunter was third with seven per cent.

If you did your money this year, you can comfort yourself with the thought of how much you might win next year if you simply back the results of the Racing Post's website poll in a £10 Trifecta!

Opromark moves forward (at last!)

After almost a year with only one property actually sold, the property exchange Opromark looks as though it is at last getting into second gear. Here's an extract from the email they sent me recently:

We have recently removed a number of properties that had been available to reserve on the exchange for some time. We have now changed the rules so that a property can only be available to reserve for 60 days - after that, if the vendor has not put the property to Offer, it will be removed.

Ever since our initial offering we have been working hard in the background to ensure that we have a sustainable supply of new, off-plan and already rented properties to meet the differing needs of our members. We have now secured properties from a range of different providers including several house builders - all with a reputation for quality.

To that end we are proud to announce that Persimmon Homes, the country's premier house builder, have entered into a test programme to supply a range of new and exciting properties available through Opromark. We start with 5 properties in an almost completed development in Haywards Heath - an interior shot from a show flat is shown here on the right.

Obviously, if you go to the Opromark site, you can see pictures of the development on there if you wish.

If you haven't heard of Opromark before, it's run along similar lines to Betfair, but for buying and selling property. You can buy shares in any property being sold on the exchange, for a minimum price of £1. You then get a share of any rental income, plus you can sell your shares on the exchange at any time in the future, hopefully for a good profit. And if the property is subsequently sold, the profits will be divided up among the shareholders.

Opromark is an interesting idea that hasn't really taken off as yet, but could do if the property market shrugs off its recent torpor and starts moving upward again. If you like the idea of investing in property but want to spread the risk by pooling your investment with others, it's got to be worth a look.

And yes, in case you're wondering, I am one of the 65 investors who last year bought a share of the original single-bedroom cottage in Leeds!

Birthday Betting

Here's another Q&A from my Betting Surgery column in the "unpublished" final edition of The Winning Report...

Q. Please can you settle an argument with a neighbour? He claims that, in a room of 26 people, the chances are at least two will have the same birthday. I can’t believe this is right. Can you settle our dispute and show how the answer is worked out? There’s a tenner riding on this.
Michael Waters, Blackpool

A. We can settle your bet, but you won’t like the answer! Your neighbour is quite right. The probability of two or more people from 26 sharing the same birthday is 63 per cent, or almost 2/1 in favour.

The way to work this out is to establish the probability of no birthdays matching. The chance of the second person’s birthday differing from the first is 364/365, the chance of the third person having a different birthday again is 363/365 and so on, until the chance of the 26th person not having a matching birthday is 340/365.

All of these conditions must be met for no-one to have matching birthdays – so for the bet to fail you must multiply these fractions together. That gives a figure of 0.37. Subtracting this from one gives a probability of 0.63, or 63 per cent, that two or more people WILL have matching birthdays.

As a matter of interest, with 23 people in the room the chances of a match are just over even; with 34, the chances are 80 per cent. Why not try offering this as a bet at the next party you go to? You might just win your tenner back!

Last day to enter 7 Stars Competition!

Just a quick reminder that today is the last day you can enter Godolphin's free 7 Stars competition. Go to www.godolphin.com for full details and to sign up. If you don't have the time or inclination to pick seven horses today, they will do a 'Lucky Dip' for you!

Good luck!

ISA and VCT Deadline Looms!

If you've got any money to save for a rainy day, just a reminder that you have less than a fortnight (5 April) to take advantage of your tax-free ISA and VCT allowances.

Most people nowadays know about ISAs. They allow you to save up to £7,000 a year in cash, shares and/or insurance, in a tax-free wrapper.

The ISA rules allow you to save up to £3,000 a year in a cash mini-ISA. You can also have a shares mini-ISA with investments of up to £3,000 and an insurance mini-ISA with up to £1,000 (though only a few providers offer these).

The alternative is to buy a maxi-ISA. You can have up to £7,000 invested in one of these. This can either be all stocks and shares, or you can mix-and-match with up to £3,000 in cash and up to £1,000 in insurance. Only a few maxi-ISA providers offer all three components, however, so if that is what you want, you may be better off buying three separate mini-ISAs.

VCTs are a lesser-known tax break. They were introduced by the Government in 1995 to encourage investment in new and smaller companies. This can obviously be riskier than investing in well-established businesses, but to make up for this the tax benefits are considerable.

For one thing, all dividends on VCTs are paid tax-free and don't have to be declared on your tax form. In addition, all taxpayers, even those who only pay the lowest rate, get 40% up-front income tax relief. That means if you invest £10,000 in a VCT, your tax bill for the current tax year will immediately be reduced by £4,000 (or you will get a rebate for this amount). Another way of looking at this is that even if your investment only ever returns 60% of its initial cost, you will still have broken even.

One drawback with VCTs is that you have to keep your money invested for at least three years, or you will have to repay the tax rebate. There is also a limited market if you want to sell your shares, though most VCTs will buy them back for a small discount on the market value.

The maximum you are allowed to invest in a VCT this year is an eye-watering £200,000. The minimum investment is set by the VCTs themselves - the lowest I have seen is £2,000, but £3,000 to £5,000 is more common. Some VCTs invest in specialist fields such as wind farms and music concerts, while others are more generalist in their approach. Gordon Brown announced yesterday that the tax breaks for VCTs will continue next year but in a reduced form - so if you want to take advantage of the generous tax incentives in the current year, you do need to move quickly.

If you'd like more info about ISAs and VCTs, there are many websites that can help you. Personally I like Best Invest. They act as independent financial advisers, and if you register through them you will get a discount on the fees charged for any investments you make. Their website has in-depth info and recommendations for current VCTs. And no, I don't get any kickbacks for recommending them! I just use them myself and think they provide a very good service.

Finally, all of the above is for information only. ISAs and VCTs may not be suitable for everyone. If you are in any doubt as to how best to proceed, I strongly recommend consulting an independent financial adviser.

Godolphin Seven Stars Competition

Just a quick reminder that you only have until the end of this week - Friday 24 March - to enter this free competition with a top prize of US$100,000. The website you need to visit is www.godolphin.com. Here are some more details about the competition from this site:

You can use our website to check out the form of the horses in training with Godolphin before selecting one horse from each of these seven barns to fly the flag for you in the competition.

Alternatively, if you are a racing novice, why not let the computer make a selection for you by using the Lucky Dip entry form? Remember entry is free and you could win one of the big prizes.

Whenever one of your seven horses is declared to run during the period of the competition - from March 25th to December 10th – we’ll e-mail you and let you know that it is running. And you can visit the Godolphin website at any time to see how you are doing and how your entry is faring in the race for that US$100,000 first prize.

See also my earlier post about this contest.

Good luck!

Betting Surgery Answer

As promised, here is another item I contributed to the last issue of The Winning Report, which as far as I know has not been published. It's a Q&A from the Betting Surgery column.

Q. Betfair have just produced a list of six horses ante-post for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. The odds are 16, 10, 14, 16, 15 and 20 respectively, giving a potential arb of around 45 per cent.

Am I missing something here, as it seems too good to be true if I can back all six horses at these odds for a guaranteed profit? How do supplementary entries affect this market? What would happen if all six horses do not appear at Cheltenham? Can other horses be entered in this market at any time or is it a "closed shop"? I would appreciate your views.

[Sent later] Update regarding the Fred Winter Handicap. The six runners declared have now increased to 19. Obviously no arb, but bets stand on the original six. Is there anything to stop the number of runners rising to say 40 or 50? This means the ante-post market is a waste of time. I would appreciate your comments and thoughts.

Mike Sterry, by e-mail

A. Thank you for your question. We must first of all make clear that we do not recommend horse racing for arb (risk-free) betting.

The main problem with ante-post betting, as you have discovered, is that months before a race there is no certainty that any particular horse will run. Indeed, it is not until the runners and riders are declared the night before the race that this is certain, and anyone betting prior to this risks losing their money if the horse they backed doesn’t actually compete.

You might ask why people bet in these circumstances at all, and the answer is that the odds available can be much better. Indeed, there have been one or two wondrous ‘coups’ in ante-post betting.

For example, back in 1967 the bookmakers William Hill gave race-horse owner Raymond Guest odds of 100/1 against his then-unraced colt winning the Derby the following year. Guest staked £500 each-way at this price. The horse was Sir Ivor, and he duly won the 1968 Derby under Lester Piggott at a starting price of 4/5. Guest collected total winnings of £62,500 on his ante-post bet (£50,000 on the win portion plus a further £12,500 on the place).

Betting ante-post is very much a gamble, however, and not advised for risk-free bettors unless you have top-notch ‘connections’ in the industry and/or advanced powers of clairvoyance.

Even in the (unlikely) event of an arb being available on the day of the race, bear in mind that in racing arb bettors can have their plans wrecked by Rule Four deductions, which occur when a horse is withdrawn without coming under orders. In this case a fixed percentage is deducted from all winning bets, the exact amount depending on the price of the withdrawn horse. For these and other reasons, horse-racing is not prime arb-hunting territory.

As regards Betfair, it is important to bear in mind that they do not produce the 'ante-post' market. They simply offer the facility for punters to do so. So, in the case of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, we suspect that at the time Mr Sterry first looked, only six of the horses entered had prices offered about them by other punters.

This point is crucial to understand. All 'back' bets on an exchange are simply 'lays' being offered by other punters. Once a race opens up to entries, there are then declaration stages where if a horse's connections want to stay in they pay extra entry fees. If not, they withdraw the horse. Thus, any horse which doesn't have the extra entry fees paid is removed from the race.

So a race might open for entries and attract, for example, 70 horses. In the lead-up to the race 60 of these horses might be withdrawn because the connections didn't want to run (the withdrawals take place at ‘declaration stages’). The final declaration stage comes the night before the contest (two nights before for the highest grade of races). By then no further entry fees are payable, but those already paid are lost if the horse is withdrawn - as are all ante-post bets, including those on exchanges.

A betting exchange will offer the facility for ante-post betting on races where they think there will be sufficient action to make money from their commission on the winning bets or lays. With a high-profile race with 70 entries that would probably be the case, especially if it were a handicap. But exactly how many horses are available to back (being offered by other punters as 'lays') is in the lap of the gods.

This is what we think happened with the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Once Betfair offered the facility for a market to be made, only six horses were initially put up by layers. This figure bore no relation to the number of runners actually entered for the race, but explains why it seemed that the number of runners later increased. It was quite simply layers on the exchange offering more and more horses to back.

Note: Many thanks to Vic Knight for his assistance in answering this question.

Note 2: See also my post Non-Runner No Bet for details of an opportunity to bet ante-post and get your money back if your horse doesn't run.