I was chatting over the weekend with my old friend Gary Boswell, who writes a football betting column for the Sporting Life website (www.sportinglife.com).
Gary took me to task for telling anyone to back Germany at 8/1 - he reckons the true odds about Germany winning the World Cup are actually around 22/1, not the 8/1 or so I recommended taking now.
Of course, I defer to Gary's greater expertise as a football pundit. However, I do stand by my original comment. While Germany's price may be shorter than it should be if it truly reflected their chances of winning the World Cup, I am convinced it will shorten further as the tournament approaches and (especially)if they progress through their not-too-difficult looking first group stage.
My advice therefore remains to back them now and lay them for a guaranteed profit when their price shortens. But taking Gary's point on board as well, once we are into the early stages of the tournament, I would certainly think about laying Germany on the exchanges. While I can see them doing a little bit better than some people are predicting, I cannot see any realistic likelihood of them winning the tournament.
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